US Holiday-Spending Growth to Outpace Last Year’s – Bain

US consumer spending for the holiday season will see an improvement compared to previous years, as shoppers buy more nonessentials such as jewelry, a Bain & Company survey has anticipated.

Sales for the November-to-December period will increase 4.5% year on year and exceed $1 trillion for the first time, Bain predicted in a report it published last week. That figure compares to the 3.5% hike recorded last year.

Retailers face continued pressure, with inflation and stagnant wage growth weighing on consumers’ budgets. Inflation is expected to account for more than half of the nominal increase in sales, it added.

“Shoppers say they anticipate spending more this year, especially among men, higher income earners, and younger consumers,” according to the survey.

Meanwhile, some 34% of shoppers are optimistic about the upcoming holiday season, according to a survey from McKinsey. Rising prices and inflation emerged as consumers’ primary concern.

Looking ahead to the next three months, 43% of consumers said they planned to spend less on jewelry, while 39% expected to spend the same amount, McKinsey continued. Just 18% intended to spend more. Jewelry and accessories ranked among the lowest-spending categories, with only 10% of consumers selecting them when asked where they intended to shell out the most. Among the generations surveyed, Gen Z was the most likely to purchase jewelry, with 18% selecting the category, versus 13% of Millennials, 8% of Gen X and 5% of Baby Boomers.

Another report, PwC’s 2026 Outlook, found that spending is likely to slip 2% year on year this season, while gift buying will decline 2% to an average of $708 per consumer. Eight in 10 consumers plan to budget more carefully this season, with 79% saying deals and discounts influence their shopping decisions.

Image: A woman carrying a holiday gift. (Shutterstock)

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