How 23% of Merchants Captured Retail’s Next Agentic Commerce Advantage

Artificial intelligence agents are poised to influence discovery, payment choice and transactions. But only 23% of merchants can clearly identify both AI-driven traffic and purchases today, according to findings in the  PYMNTS Intelligence report “Global Digital Shopping Index: Merchant Edition,” commissioned by Visa Acceptance Solutions. Another 21% can recognize agentic traffic but cannot connect it to completed purchases.

The opportunity hiding inside that gap is bigger than bot detection. It is the chance to build the measurement system for a new commerce channel before the channel reaches scale.

That, in turn, could make attribution one of the earliest competitive advantages in agentic commerce. The majority of merchants surveyed believe that AI agents are already beginning to sit between the shopper and the merchant: 61% agree AI-generated results will influence purchases more than traditional search, 58% expect agents to choose payment methods based on fees and rewards, and 56% expect agents to complete transactions themselves.

Even large merchants are hardly running away with the opportunity. Just 27% can clearly identify agent-driven purchases, compared with 19% of SMBs.

AI Attribution Is Becoming Retail’s Next Competitive Capability

Digital attribution traditionally answered a relatively straightforward question: Where did this customer come from? Agentic commerce complicates the question because an agent could participate at several points in a transaction without necessarily completing it.

The report argued that merchants need reporting systems capable of connecting agent activity to completed purchases, payment choice, loyalty usage and transaction value. The ultimate goal is determining whether agents are producing incremental revenue or merely changing an existing customer’s path to purchase.

Merchant Agentic Commerce Capabilities by the numbers:

• 23% can clearly identify both AI traffic and purchases.
• 61% expect AI results to influence purchases more than traditional search.
• 58% expect agents to choose payment methods based on fees and rewards.
• 56% expect agents to complete transactions themselves.
• 38% expect agent purchases to exceed 15% of sales within two years.

Read the report: Global Digital Shopping Index: Merchant Edition

The first advantage in agentic commerce may not be having the smartest shopping agent. It may be knowing exactly what the agents are doing to your business. Retailers do not have to predict exactly what AI shopping will become. They need the infrastructure to see what it is becoming while it happens.

And sequencing is crucial here. Before merchants optimize checkout for autonomous purchases, they need to understand when agents are involved. Before adjusting loyalty offers, they need to know whether agents are using them. Before changing payment strategies, they need visibility into how agents choose among payment options.

The merchants that build those capabilities first could create a powerful feedback loop: identify agent demand, measure its economic value, optimize the experience and measure again.

That turns agent attribution into something analogous to the early advantage merchants gained from mastering search, social and mobile analytics.

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At PYMNTS Intelligence, we work with businesses to uncover insights that fuel intelligent, data-driven discussions on changing customer expectations, a more connected economy and the strategic shifts necessary to achieve outcomes. With rigorous research methodologies and unwavering commitment to objective quality, we offer trusted data to grow your business. As our partner, you’ll have access to our diverse team of PhDs, researchers, data analysts, number crunchers, subject matter veterans and editorial experts.

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